GBP/USD ( 4 hour )

Seperti terlihat, GBP / USD saat ini memasuki area bawah dari Fan Fibonacci bearish.
Setelah menyentuh angka terendah dikisaran 1,5483,gbp/usd bergerak naik dan pindah pada tingkat resistensi berikutnya. Moving Average mungkin masih menunjukkan menuju silang resistensi berikutnya Tapi di sisi lain
RSI dekat dengan pasar yang overbought. Kita harus menunggu beberapa hari ke depan.supprot level 1.5612 resisten level 1.5788 - 1.5874

GBP/USD ( 4 hour )

Resisten :1.5874 - 1.6225 support : 1.5382 - 1.5241

Euro bounces on Irish deal, but doubts abound

(Reuters) - The embattled euro crept off two-month lows on Monday after European authorities tried to protect the region's financial stability by agreeing to lend debt-soaked Ireland 85 billion euros ($115 billion).

Market reaction to the deal in early Asian trade was mixed.

Currency and bond traders doubted the deal was enough to prevent fiscally pressured Portugal and Spain from being next in line to suffer a debt crisis.

Stock investors, on the other hand, seemed to have warmed to the Irish bailout, at least for now. The commodity market also seemed sanguine about Europe's fiscal tensions.S&P 500 futures climbed 0.5 percent. The Australian .AXJO and New Zealand .NZ50 share markets, the first to start trade in Asia, suffered only light losses of 0.2 percent each.

Tensions on the Korean peninsula also remained in focus after North Korea's shelling of a South Korean island last week. Seoul shares .KS11 opened up 0.2 percent, but the won fell 0.3 percent against the dollar.

Gold, which tends to be in demand when investors shy away from risk, was a shade softer at $1,358.56.

Crude oil prices were flat at $83.94 a barrel.

But there were clear doubts in the currency market that Europe's debt problems were over.

Already, the euro was giving up some of its gains in early Asian trade. It was defensive at $1.3278, having shot as high as $1.3345 in thin trade after the European Union aid or Ireland was announced.

It had plumbed a two-month low of $1.3200 in late New York trade on Friday.

Some analysts, predicting the euro was not out of the woods, said its latest bounce was driven by speculators taking profits in their bets against the common currency.

"The package is pretty much what most would have anticipated, so it's not a surprise to anyone," said Greg Gibbs, strategist at RBS in Sydney.

"It doesn't really change the real fear the market has that this could spread beyond Ireland to Portugal and Spain."

The U.S. dollar .DXY benefited the most from the euro's struggle, in part driven by safe-haven demand, and as investors continued to play the trend of a rebounding U.S. currency.

The dollar index, which measures its performance against a basket of currencies, was firm at 80.357, within spitting distance of a two-month high of 80.399 hit in New York on Friday.

U.S. two-, five- and 10-year Treasury futures were firm across the curve.

(Reporting by Koh Gui Qing and Ian Chua; Editing by Mark Bendeich and Alex Richardson)

U.S. dollar up; Asia stocks slip on profit taking

(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar steadied on Friday, as traders girded for a break above tough chart obstacles on Europe's fiscal problems, while the looming year end kept many equity investors eager to take profits, weighing on Asian stock markets.

The Australian dollar slid after the head of the country's central bank said interest rates were about right for the near term, extinguishing speculation the currency's yield advantage would get a policy boost in the next few months.Caution ruled in financial markets, with thinning volumes driving more stock investors to take profits in the year's winning sectors in Asia, such as consumer discretionary spending, and go to the sidelines.

The MSCI index of Asia Pacific stocks outside Japan slipped 0.3 percent .MIAPJ0000PUS, weighed down the most by a 0.8 percent fall in the consumer discretionary sector.

Powered by the view that the hunger of Asia's consumers for big-ticket items, such as cars and appliances will keep growing, this sector is still up 28 percent so far this year .MIAPJCD00PUS, making it by and far the best performer.

Japan's Nikkei share average .N225 was barely changed on the day, with strength in larger exporter shares offset by weakness in retailers and industrial stocks.

The Nikkei's 9.5 percent rise in November, driven in part by a weakening in the yen, is on course to be the biggest monthly gain since March.

Correspondingly, the U.S. dollar's 4.3 percent rise against the yen is also the steepest single-month advance since March.

Government bonds, in turn, sold off, with 10-year futures down 2.4 points in November, the biggest monthly decline since April 2008.

The December contract was down 0.3 point at its lowest since June 23, ahead of new supply of 10-year debt next week. The flows across the yield curve have been erratic, and dealers are keeping watch of cash yields of mid-maturity bonds to see if they follow the 10-years higher, which would trigger more bullish bets to be folded.

The U.S. dollar nudged up, though mainly because of weakness in other currencies.

The dollar index, a trade-weighted measure against six other major currencies, edged up 0.1 percent to 79.85. A major chart obstacle lies at 80.05, a level which served as support in April and August.

In the absence of fresh economic news, a clear break above that level will be a medium-term bullish signal for the dollar, especially if the index closes the week above 79.73, the 200-week moving average.

The Australian dollar was down 0.5 percent to US$0.9750 after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said policy was appropriate for now, suggesting the central bank was in no hurry to tighten rates.

He later said it was not unreasonable for investors to price in a rate hike in the middle of 2011, a comfort to longer-term investors in the Australian dollar but no solace for short-term bulls who had hoped for a near-term push to parity.

(Additional reporting by IFR Analyst Takahiro Okamoto in Tokyo and Reuters FX Analyst Krishna Kumar in Sydney; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)

GBP/USD ( 4 hour )

RESISTEN 1.5754 - 1.5848
SUPPORT 1.5663 - 1.5567

Battered euro limps off lows

(Reuters) - The euro earned a reprieve early in Asia on Thursday, lifting off a two-month trough after three straight sessions of falls, but with the euro zone debt crisis still festering any rebound may well prove short-lived.

Ireland unveiled an ambitious austerity plan to tackle its debt crisis and secure an international bailout on Wednesday, which some analysts said was a step in the right direction.

But already the plan's credibility has come under fire for sticking to economic growth assumptions, unveiled earlier this month, seen as too optimistic.The euro, which plumbed a low around $1.3284 after piercing through support around $1.3333 overnight, staged a modest rebound back to $1.3344 in Asia.

Next support is pegged at $1.3232, the 61.8 percent retracement of the August to November rally, a break of which could see the single currency target $1.3000.

Against the Japanese currency, the euro bounced off the session low of 110.26 yen, a level last seen in mid-September, to last stand at 111.47.

"With the U.S. on holiday, and CDS spreads across the PIGS holding in below recent record highs, risk appetite may crawl back in the days ahead to at least stabilize EUR/USD," said Peter Frank, strategist at Societe Generale.

"But, with the Irish government also admitting that the IMF/EU EFSF talks may last weeks, we find no viable reasons to buy the EUR at this point."

U.S. markets are shut on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday.

The dollar index .DXY, which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of major currencies, flirted with a two-month high just short of 80.000 overnight and was last at 79.701.

The dollar rose to 83.66 yen from a session low of 82.92 and last traded at 83.53 yen.

The greenback was further aided by U.S. data showing a fall in new claims for jobless benefits to two-year lows and another rise in consumer spending, suggesting the U.S. economy is nearing a self-sustaining recovery.

Those figures helped spur a rally on Wall Street, boosting risk appetite and benefiting commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar.

The Aussie dollar popped above $0.9800, having traded near $0.9700 earlier this week. It was last at $0.9832.

The euro sank 1.4 percent to a record low of A$1.3556, shattering previous troughs in the A$1.3640/50 zone.

GBP/USD

As you can see the pair traded along the Relative strenge index Fan between the support lines. If the pair will
not cross the upper Fan line we might see an on going downward, maybe under the lower
resistance around 1.5875.

Support Levels around Resistance Levels around
1.5875 1.5993
1.5755 1.6115

(Reuters) - The dollar dipped against the euro on Thursday after subdued U.S. inflation supported the Federal Reserve's case for quantitative easing, while Asian equities stabilized after an eight-day sell-off.
Hopes that Ireland will soon see a solution to its debt crisis supported stocks, which have been dogged by uncertainty about how Europe would tackle Ireland's debt woes and fears that China may take aggressive steps to curb inflation.Such factors had helped exacerbate a recent sell-off in risky assets and a short-covering rally in the dollar that traders say is partly due to investors trimming their bets before market liquidity dwindles toward the year-end.

The euro and Asian equities gained some respite after Ireland agreed to work with EU and IMF officials on steps to shore up its shattered banking sector.

The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.2 percent to 457.50.

The index had fallen for eight sessions, shedding 5.7 percent. It is still not far from its highest in more than two years hit in early November after the Federal Reserve unveiled its $600 billion bond buying scheme.

* Australian shares .AXJO edged up 0.1 percent in mixed trade, supported by gains in retailer David Jones (DJS.AX) after positive sales, and Atlas Iron (AGO.AX) after it announced rail talks with BHP Billiton (BHP.AX). .AX

Japan's Nikkei average .N225 rose 0.9 percent. Among the leading gainers were financial stocks, which have been among the worst performers this year. The banking sector sub-index rose 2.6 percent .IBNKS.T, adding to its rally over the past week.

The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.3554, pulling away from a seven-week trough of $1.3446 hit on Tuesday on trading platform EBS.

The dollar index, which measures its value against a basket of major currencies, stood at 78.962 .DXY, having retreated from Tuesday's seven-week high of 79.461.

The dollar's retreat followed news that the U.S. core consumer prices rose just 0.6 percent in October from a year earlier, the smallest rise in records kept since 1957.

By Masayuki Kitano

G-20, APEC Yield Little to Fix Imbalances, Stem Inflow Concerns

Leaders of the world’s biggest economies ended four days of talks without taking decisive measures to address the global imbalances that have fueled asset bubbles and risk leading to a protectionist backlash.

Asia-Pacific leaders yesterday in Japan pledged to take “concrete steps” toward creating a regional free-trade agreement without setting a target for achieving that goal. Their meeting followed the Nov. 11-12 Group of 20 summit in Seoul that “opposed protectionist trade actions” while failing to agree on a remedy for trade and investment distortions. Officials went into the G-20 vowing to reduce global trade friction by agreeing to avoid weakening their currencies to boost exports. Once there, the U.S. and China took turns blaming the other’s foreign exchange policy, with President Barack Obama calling the yuan “undervalued” and Chinese officials saying the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing was undermining the dollar. “The problem that people really were concerned about, the effects of U.S. monetary policy in terms of capital flows, was barely addressed at all,” said Uwe Parpart, chief economist and strategist for Asia at Cantor Fitzgerald HK Capital Markets. A solution that doesn’t involve China boosting domestic demand and the U.S. increasing savings “deals with symptoms, not the real cause,” he said.

Hu indicated no change in his country’s currency policy in a Nov. 13 speech, adding that pressure for quick reforms “will do no good to international cooperation.” The same day, National Security Adviser Thomas Donilon told reporters that the U.S. wants China to let the yuan rise more before Hu visits Washington in January.

Trip Ends

Obama flew home yesterday after a 10-day trip aimed at supporting his goal of doubling exports in five years. He pressed Hu on allowing the yuan to strengthen during an 80- minute meeting on Nov. 11 as China’s record $28 billion trade surplus with the U.S. in August heightened criticism its government maintains an unfair cap on the currency.

The yuan, also known as the renminbi, has risen about 3 percent against the dollar since June 19, when China scrapped its two-year peg. China has $2.65 trillion of foreign currency reserves, more than double any other country.

“The pressure from the U.S. is most likely to result in none too subtle threats about the dollar’s reserve status," Paul

Donovan, deputy head of global economics at UBS AG, said in an e-mail yesterday. ‘‘It is unlikely to speed up the process of renminbi revaluation."

Boost Growth

Obama told reporters after the G-20 that the Federal Reserve’s plan to buy an additional $600 billion of Treasuries was designed to boost growth. He said a stronger economy would help the U.S. cut a budget deficit that reached $1.294 trillion in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, second only to the $1.415 trillion shortfall in 2009.

The G-20 statement said emerging markets facing a surge of capital inflows can adopt regulatory steps to cope, offering them cover to limit currency swings and stem asset bubbles. Finance ministers from the G-20 will work next year on a set of so-called indicative guidelines designed to identify large economic imbalances and actions needed to fix them, the leaders said in a statement.

‘‘The decision to create a framework is a useful step as it can show the relative significance of individual country imbalances and provide an indication of where adjustments should take place,’’ Philippine central bank Governor Amando Tetangco said in a mobile phone message yesterday.

APEC Meeting

Leaders of APEC’s 21 economies, which account for more than 50 percent of the global economy and almost 45 percent of its trade, said the region ‘‘is recovering from the recent economic and financial crisis, but uncertainty remains.’’ Echoing the G-20 statement, the group called for greater currency flexibility and warned against volatile movement in the foreign exchange market that can disrupt economic growth.

‘‘We will move toward more market-determined exchange rate systems’’ and ‘‘refrain from competitive devaluation of currencies,’’ the statement said. Advanced countries will be vigilant to ‘‘help mitigate the risk of excessive volatility in capital flows facing some emerging market economies.’’

‘‘The APEC meeting was overshadowed by G-20, where countries were divided over the yuan and other currency policies,’’ said Koji Murata, professor of international relations at Doshisha University in Kyoto. ‘‘The result was vague and lacking substance.’’

Trade Talks

The U.S. pushed for the completion of the nine-country Trans-Pacific Partnership by next year’s APEC meeting in Honolulu, Trade Representative Ron Kirk said yesterday in an interview in Yokohama, Japan. That would lay the groundwork for a wider agreement that may include China, he said.

Obama on Nov. 13 said he ‘‘very much welcomed’’ Japan’s interest in joining talks on the TPP, which would be the largest U.S. trade accord since the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico. The talks now include the U.S., Australia, Singapore, New Zealand, Brunei, Chile, Vietnam, Peru, and Malaysia.

Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan, who favors joining the TPP talks, faces resistance from his own party amid a backlash from farmers who benefit from tariff protection. His Cabinet last week agreed only to begin preliminary discussions on the negotiations.

‘‘We just want to keep our foot to the pedal and see how far we can get to closure by the time we convene next year,’’ Kirk said, adding that five rounds of talks are scheduled for 2011. ‘‘What we are ultimately creating will become the Free- Trade Agreement of the Asia-Pacific.By Daniel Ten Kate and Sachiko Sakamaki - Nov 14, 2010 10:00 PM GMT+0700

Euro burdened by Ireland as dollar gets lift from yields

(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar clung to recent gains on Monday as confusion over aid for Ireland and concerns about a prospective tightening in China kept the euro and higher-yielding currencies on the defensive.

The dollar has also benefited from a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields as a run of better economic data led investors to toy with the idea of a sustainable recovery. The U.S. two-year swap rate jumped almost 18 basis points last week to 0.70 percent, the highest in two-months.

"The dollar's relatively impressive performance comes before the Fed has even put one dollar's worth of QE2 to practical work, so some cautionregarding the sustainability of this USD rebound remains warranted," wrote analysts at TD Securities in a note to clients.

"But we wonder whether the past week's price action indicated that USD sentiment was on the cusp of a significant trend change from a technical perspective," they added.

The euro's losses last week tended to suggest that the underlying medium-term trend higher had lost significant momentum and TD saw significant resistance now in the $1.4050/1.4150 range into year-end.

On Monday, the single currency was hovering at $1.3685, having edged up from an early $1.3655 on bids from a U.S. bank. It had traded as low as $1.3573 on Friday before talk of an EU aid package for Ireland lifted it as far as $1.3777.

However, while EU officials have said a deal for Ireland was being discussed, the Irish government itself said it had not made an application for assistance.